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The numbers are looking good for Mayor Zohran Mamdani.
A Siena poll conducted in late February and released this week found that the mayor has a 63 percent favorability rating in New York City. But even more importantly for him, that poll also found that 54 percent of New York state voters, and 62 percent of New York City voters, want the governor and legislature to go along with his plan to tax the rich.
Both chambers of the legislature, for their part, now appear to be on board. When the State Senate and the State Assembly release their budget proposals next week, they'll each include plans to raise the income tax rate of New York City's high-earners, along the lines of what Mamdani is proposing. The legislature has, in prior years, also proposed increased taxes on the wealthy. What's different this year is that both houses of the legislature appear to already be in alignment, possibly in an effort to present a united front alongside Mayor Mamdani.
"I think I've said repeatedly that we are certainly trying to meet the moment, and revenue raisers would certainly be part of our package," State Senate Majority Leader Andrea Stewart-Cousins told reporters on Wednesday. "In general, we have always believed in this progressive tax structure and we have always put forth ways that we can meet the needs of New Yorkers, and obviously, we are interested in helping New York City."
In a talk this morning at New York Law School, First Deputy Mayor Dean Fuleihan exuded an air of calm confidence when speaking about the prospects of more aid from the state, in some shape or form, to address the City's projected $5.4 billion budget gap next fiscal year.
At New York Law School breakfast talk on the budget, First Deputy Mayor Dean Fuleihan projects confidence about increased state aid: “That's part of the effort that we're right now, I believe, successfully, discussing in Albany.” pic.twitter.com/tUXOTc14G2
— Holly Pretsky (@hollypret) March 5, 2026
According to City Hall, raising both the income tax rate for million-dollar earners by 2 percent, and the tax on corporations also by around 2 percent, would raise $4.5 billion annually for the City.
What are the odds of Mamdani's tax the rich proposal finding its way into the state budget, which is due in less than a month? To date, Governor Kathy Hochul has shown very little sign of budging from her "absolutely not" stance on raising the personal income tax rate on millionaires (or from her similar "no" on raising the corporate tax rate in New York City).
This week, the mayor and the governor held a series of events to launch the City's new 2-care pilot program, and touted the state's funding of the pilot, which was announced days after Mamdani came into office. The pilot will start with 2,000 seats spread across neighborhoods in northern Manhattan, the west and central Bronx, central Brooklyn, and south Queens. But the ramping up of the program to universality will require a lot more cash than the initial $75 million. Where would that money come from, reporters asked. New taxes, like Mamdani has proposed?
On Tuesday, both dodged those questions. Mamdani ran cover for Hochul and thanked her for the existing support for 2-care, while Hochul simply said she was committed to continuing funding for the 2-care program. "As long as I'm governor, it's going to continue being a priority of mine," Hochul said.
Today, a reporter at another event asked Hochul more pointedly—did she feel "alone" in her fight against her fellow Democrats, who are continuing to push for higher taxes on the rich? Was she frustrated with them?
"This is not a frustrated face. I am not frustrated," she said. "I know how to do this. The legislature, for example, has put in tax increases every year since I have been governor. I know how to negotiate."
She continued: "There are ongoing conversations with the mayor's team, his budget team, my budget team. We're going to get to the right resolution. I take nothing personal in this business, but at the end of the day, we're going to continue supporting the city of New York."
Was there a "no" to tax increases in that response? Not quite!
Because at the end of the day, will Hochul really fight like hell against the legislature and the incredibly popular mayor of New York City to preserve the wealth of New York City's richest, even as she portrays her budget this year as one focused on "affordability"? Wouldn't Hochul's already record-high favorability numbers with Democrats soar even higher if she did something the party's voters are strongly in favor of? (More than 70 percent of Democrats statewide, per the Siena poll, support raising taxes on the city's wealthiest.) Is she that scared of extremely longshot candidate and MAGA warrior Bruce Blakeman defeating her in November's general election, which is shaping up as a total wipeout for Republicans nationwide?
We'll know soon enough.
—Max Rivlin-Nadler